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  Four scenarios of the energy transition. Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics

Bazilian, M., Bradshaw, M., Gabriel, J., Goldthau, A., Westphal, K. (2019 online): Four scenarios of the energy transition. Drivers, consequences, and implications for geopolitics. - Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews - Climate Change, e625.
https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.625

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Item Permalink: https://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_4950890 Version Permalink: https://publications.iass-potsdam.de/pubman/item/item_4950890_2
Genre: Journal Article

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 Creators:
Bazilian, Morgan1, Author
Bradshaw, Michael1, Author
Gabriel, Johannes1, Author
Goldthau, Andreas2, Author              
Westphal, Kirsten1, Author
Affiliations:
1External Organizations, ou_persistent22              
2IASS Institute for Advanced Sustainability Studies Potsdam, ou_96022              

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Free keywords: Energy transition; geopolitics; scenarios
 Abstract: This opinion article offers insights into the geopolitics of the ongoing global energy transition. In doing so, it draws heavily on a workshop in Berlin in late 2018, and a subsequent paper in the journal Nature. Four scenarios are presented. First, the “Big Green Deal” offers a positive story of the future, under the assumption that there will be a multilateral approach to tackling climate change. Second, “Dirty Nationalism” explores the fallout of nations choosing to turn inward and pursue a short‐term, protectionist, and self‐interested agenda. Third, “Technology Breakthrough” illustrates how a technological leap forward could lead to a great power rivalry and distinct regional energy blocs. Finally, “Muddling On” investigates the outcome of an energy transition that reflect business as usual. By comparing and contrasting the different scenarios, the article highlights the potential winners and losers of the different scenarios, and the geopolitical consequences. It also sketches the implications for policy, theory, and scenario thinking more broadly.

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Language(s): eng - English
 Dates: 2020-012019-11
 Publication Status: Published online
 Pages: -
 Publishing info: -
 Table of Contents: -
 Rev. Method: -
 Identifiers: DOI: 10.1002/wcc.625
IASSPROJECT: ISIGET
 Degree: -

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Title: Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews - Climate Change
Source Genre: Journal, E14, SSCI, Scopus, Vorg. WIREs Climate Change
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Publ. Info: Hoboken, New Jersey : John Wiley & Sons Ltd
Pages: - Volume / Issue: - Sequence Number: e625 Start / End Page: - Identifier: CoNE: https://publications.iass-potsdam.de/cone/journals/resource/131119b